Impressive... most impressive

Turns out there were more gremlins aboard SpaceShipOne than just that one "bang." The controls started acting up, and pilot Mike Melvill had to deal with a hypersonic craft that rolled 90 degrees to the left, then to the right. Yikes! One of my questions has been answered, however: The control problems forced Melvill to cut short the craft's planned climb. Although SpaceShipOne did enter space at 62-plus miles up, the original goal was to reach 68 miles--breaking the old altitude record of 67 miles set by our friend the X-15. Since I keep referencing the older space plane, here's a side-by-side comparison of the two:



I'm all the more impressed by this accomplishment because of the potentially deadly obstacles Melvill had to overcome to reach that magical barrier 62 miles up. Let's hope the ship's problems can be corrected quickly so Scaled Composites can keep 'em flying.

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The obligatory post-Father's Day report

My, what fun these Father's Day events can be. Presents came from all around. Lisa got me a copy of Warrior Women, a book that I've been wanting even before I started on the whole Wonder Woman/Amazons research kick. It looks like the kind of book I love. Calista got me two items: A Texas A&M shirt, which is always good, and a photo of her and me screaming down the log flume at Sea World. That one's in my office at work for all to see and admire. The prize for unique Father's Day gift goes to little Keela, however. She got me two pairs of Supergirl panties. Fairly skimpy Supergirl panties, which I couldn't fit into even if I were so inclined. Lisa, however, can wear them, so it's a win-win situation as far as I'm concerned...

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A few more thoughts on SpaceShipOne

Now that I've had time to digest the news of the successful flight a little bit, a number of interesting questions pose themselves. What, in fact, are SpaceShipOne's estimated performance parameters? By that, I mean what are the theoretical limits to what it can do?

Let's compare SpaceShipOne to the old X-15, which made 199 flights between 1959 and 1968. The X-15 was dropped from the belly of its B-52 mothership at an altitude of 45,000 feet. The world altitude record for aircraft--just over 67 miles--was set by Joseph A. Walker Aug. 22, 1963. The world speed record for aircraft--Mach 6.7--was set by Pete Knight Oct. 3, 1967. SpaceShipOne is dropped from the belly of its mothership at an altitude of 50,000 feet, has reached an altitude of 62.5 miles and has approached speeds of close to Mach 3.5 during its ascent.

Simply stated, we don't know what SpaceShipOne is capable of, because privatly-held Scaled Composites has been fairly tight-lipped about their project. As well they should be, since they're in competition with several other teams for the $10 million X-Prize. But we can speculate, and indeed I shall. SpaceShipOne's previous flight topped 40 miles in altitude, and this flight topped 62 miles. Unless Scaled Composites is really pushing the ship's capabilities, I expect the X-15's record of 67 miles to fall shortly after the two qualifying flights to claim the X-Prize are completed. Having come this far, I'd be surprised if Burt Rutan couldn't coax another five miles or so of altitude out of his bird. The speed record is more of a challenge--that would mean doubling SpaceShipOne's top speed. But again, we don't know what SpaceShipOne's theoretical top speed actually is. These are still test flights, after all. If they open the throttle up all the way, who's to say they won't break the Mach 4 barrier? We don't know how much fuel the hybrid engine uses. The X-15 was the first plane ever to break the Mach 3 barrier, and went past Mach 4, 5 and 6 with the development of newer, more powerful engines. On its very first space flight, SpaceShipOne already topped Mach 3, so it is starting out somewhat ahead of the game from where the X-15 began--and at $30 million development cost, is significantly cheaper to fly than the X-15 as well.

We don't know a lot of things (something I seem to be repeating quite a bit) including maximum carrying capacity, although we do know it is at least equal to the weight of a pilot plus two passengers. But it could possibly be more. I also find myself wondering about SpaceShipOne's range--if, instead of immediately feathering the wings up to slow down and turn around, what if they continued in a ballistic trajectory for a while? What if they didn't turn around, and instead re-entered the atmosphere downrange? Could they launch in a trajectory that allows them to glide into Denver? The East Coast? Rutan's already spoken about "scaling up" the design and capability, so what are the prospects of a hypersonic spaceliner? Sure, space tourism is a nice start, but it's pointless to end things there. Scaled Composits could develop a hypersonic liner that carried, say, 30 passengers coast-to-coast or across the Atlantic or Pacific in an hour or so, while at the same time taking them into space, giving them the experience of weightlessness, well, that would be a winner on all levels. You'd still get tourism, sure, but you'd also capture a segment of the affluent business market--those movers and shakers who have to get from here to there, but want to have some adventure while doing so. A hypersonic space liner would give them a legitimate excuse.

I suspect Rutan is already thinking these things. Heck, it's pretty obvious from interviews with him that he's thinking orbit as well. If he's successful (and at this point I see no reason to doubt him) then pretty much every nation on Earth will be able to afford its own manned space program for just a little more than the cost of a state-of-the-art fighter jet. China is spending hundreds of millions, if not billions, on a long-range plan to land Taikonauts on the moon, solely for the prestige involved. The political ramifications of cheap (relatively speaking), universal space access are enormous. Scaled Composits is a small, innovative company with modest private backing. Can you imagine the potential if Boeing or Lockheed-Martin gets beind this? The market doesn't exist yet, but it would develop quickly. Very quickly, indeed.

Before any of that happens, thought, they'll need to fix SpaceShipOne. It seems that something went bump during the ascent, and there was obvious damage around one of the landing wheels when it touched down. Thank goodness nothing worse happened. But this will likely delay the X-Prize attempt by several weeks, at minimum.

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Flying into space

Well now friends and neighbors, it seems that good old Mike Melvill has gone and gotten himself a pair of astronaut wings. He few that wonderfully-designed but poorly-named SpaceShipOne into outer space today, reaching an altitude of 62.5 miles. The first private space flight in history. CNN has a good story up on the suborbital mission, as does MSNBC.

What does this mean? Well, it means Scaled Composites will check out all the data from the flight, then, if all is in order, will make a run for the X-Prize sometime soon by repeating this flight with a crew of three (or their equivalent weight). But they're not going to stop at edge-of-space tourism. Ship designer Burt Rutan said:

"We are heading to orbit sooner than you think," he said. "We do not intend to stay in low-earth orbit for decades. The next 25 years will be a wild ride. ... One that history will note was done for the benefit of everyone."

Hmm. You don't suppose that SpaceShipOne isn't an end unto itself, do you? Sure, that $10 million in X-Prize money will defray a large chunk of the $30 million Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen invested in the project, but not all of it. There's got to be a long-term, big picture goal behind the scenes. It wouldn't suprise me in the least if Scaled Composites have a vehicle capable of reaching LEO within 10 years, with development costs under $250 million. Compare that to the billions NASA is going to squander on feasability studies even before a contractor is selected to develop a successor to the shuttle fleet... folks, it doesn't take a genius to see which way the wind is blowing.

P.S. Yes, the migraine is still with me, but is much-diminished. Thanks for asking.

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Oh. Now I get it.

Friday night I developed a headache while working late in my office. A little crescent of pain arcing over the top to the front of my right ear. When I woke up Saturday, it was still there. Huh. Aspirin, Tylenol, ibuprofin, nothing really had any effect on it. Saturday night I still had it. This morning, it was waiting for me when I woke up. It was very strange, because although it wasn't a particularly bad headache, it was very sharply defined, and seemed physically anchored in that spot. Lisa, ever-knowledgeable about these things from personal experience, said it sounded like a migraine, because: 1) it lingers, and 2) it laughs in the face of any drugs I send its was. About an hour after Lisa's diagnosis, the headache exploded down my face and into my jaw. My teeth hurt now. I wouldn't call it debilitating pain, but it certainly isn't comfortable.

This is the first time I've ever experienced a migraine, and while I'm still functional, I kinda wish I wasn't. This isn't a whole lot of fun. I'm putting down a cocktail of different pain meds and bruying myself in a dark, quiet bedroom. I sincerely feel sorry for folks who have to cope with this on a regular basis.

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Marines getting plasma rifles, Starship Troopers still stuck with M-16s

This is one of those simultaneously fascinating/disturbing technological advancements. A New Scientist article, Sweeping Stun Guns to Target Crowds, discusses some of the weapons research going on that is about to bear fruit:

Weapons that can incapacitate crowds of people by sweeping a lightning-like beam of electricity across them are being readied for sale to military and police forces in the US and Europe.

At present, commercial stun guns target one person at a time, and work only at close quarters. The new breed of non-lethal weapons can be used on many people at once and operate over far greater distances.

From a purely techno geek, SFnal perspective, the advent of actual, living, breathing plasma rifles is a very cool prospect. The ones most likely to come into service first, produced by XADS, have a limited range of only three meters, but will be used by the U.S. Marine Corps for close-range crowd control. If nothing else, this kind of Star Trek weaponry will have a distinct intimidation advantage:

Xtreme Alternative Defense Systems (XADS), based in Anderson, Indiana, will be one of the first companies to market another type of wireless weapon. .... the $9000 Close Quarters Shock Rifle projects an ionised gas, or plasma, towards the target, producing a conducting channel. It will also interfere with electronic ignition systems and stop vehicles.

"We will be able to fire a stream of electricity like water out of a hose at one or many targets in a single sweep," claims XADS president Peter Bitar.

Not content with a wimpy three-meter range, however, XADS is upping the amperage--literally--by using a high-energy, solid-state laser to increase the range of said plasma rifles up to 100 meters. This makes it an effective, multi-purpose weapon, limited only by bulk (which will decrease) and cost (which has got to be obscenely expensive):

The laser pulse must be very intense, but can be brief. So the makers of the weapons plan to use a UV laser to fire a 5-joule pulse lasting just 0.4 picoseconds - equating to a momentary power of more than 10 million megawatts.

This intense pulse - which is said not to harm the eyes - ionises the air, producing long, thread-like filaments of glowing plasma that can be sustained by repeating the pulse every few milliseconds. This plasma channel is then used to deliver a shock to the victims similar to a Taser's 50,000-volt, 26-watt shock.

Of course, if you're building a miniature laser that powerful, why not just skip the whole plasma-shock middleman and just fry the target? Oh, right. Non-lethal weaponry. But surely I'm not the only one that has considered the fact that with energy weapons like this, the ability to adjust the intensity of the shock/discharge is not that great a leap. So within a few years of these entering production, troops will be able to adjust their weapons to "stun," "kill" or "take out that armored column."

The implications of this can be quite chilling, when viewed in an Orwellian sense. Non-lethal weapons systems generate far less public outcry than the development of new lethal systems. But for a totalitarian state, non-lethal systems are preferred. The unruly masses are easier to control and suppress (come on--streaming plasma beams that can affect multiple targets or rubber bullets? No contest). In violent confrontations between the military and “unarmed” civilian groups, there would be less outrage and outcry resulting from piles of corpses in the aftermath (think Israeli troops in Gaza and the West Bank). And soldiers (think Tiananmen Square here) would be less hesitant to put down an uprising if they knew they weren't really causing permanent harm to their fellow citizens. Such weapons perceived as "harmless" hold within them much potential for abuse, but for peacekeeping operations and specific circumstances, they could be vastly more effective than conventional weapons, and reduce the incidence of injury to innocent bystanders. I suspect these weapons will become very popular in short order to those who can afford them. This definitely bears watching.

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My, that looks tasty and inviting

Sometimes, instead of doing the essential work that needs to be done, getting projects finished before the deadline arrives or any number of logical, responsible things, I have the irresistable urge to goof off and play around with something utterly inconsequential. So today I made lables for my mead. And yes, my mood was most decidedly whimsical at the time.


I'm also hard at work on a large, built-in wine rack for the kitchen. I sanded it down this evening and put another coat of stain/sealant on it. One more coat, and a final sanding should do it. Installation should be complete by this weekend, at which point I'll have a place to store my bottles of Bee Rider. I'll post some pictures if I remember to take some.

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