Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Democrat wave hits high water mark

Most of you political junkies have already read about how former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez upset Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla in a runoff Tuesday, effectively giving the Democrats control of 234 seats in Congress. This is noteworthy on on many levels--Tom Delay and redistricting and Hispanic desertion of the Republican party have all been mentioned in national accounts. But they're all missing the most striking component of this election, the one that's only visible to those folks at Ground Zero in the San Antonio media market.

Ciro Rodriguez can't campaign himself out of a wet paper bag.

Rodriguez is a former four-term congressman, sure, but he won in a heavily Democratic, heavily Hispanic district without Democratic opposition in the primaries. When Henry Cuellar challenged him two cycles ago, Rodriguez stumbled and flailed his way to an embarrassing defeat. And the rematch this year was even worse. Simply pathetic. The Rodriguez campaign was disorganized, disjointed and clueless--the result being that Cuellar is now a two-term congressman.

By all accounts, Rodriguez is a decent fellow and a competent legislator. But he's got little charisma, isn't a natural public speaker and comes across as perpetually confused on the campaign trail. He dithers, and so does his campaign. Case in point: When the U.S. Superme Court ruling re-opened the race for a redrawn District 23, Rodriguez at first declined to run, then got in the race, then dropped out for 24 hours before changing his mind again. Not what I'd call a recipe for success.

Yet Rodriguez won in a landslide. The redrawn District 23 is split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, and about 61 percent Hispanic. Bonilla had far more cash on hand, and spent heavily on attack ads these past few weeks accusing Rodriguez of sponsoring legislation that supports terrorists. Bonilla, of course, blames the loss on the court's unfair redistricting, but Bonilla even lost in the conservative, libertarian west Texas counties of Dimmit, Culberson, Presidio and Brewster which have long been Republican bastions--even when Democrats held a lock on every statewide office. Unbelievable. That a well-known, well-funded and well-organized Hispanic Republican could be so thoroughly beaten at every level by an Inspector Clouseau of a candidate indicates to me that not only has the anti-Republican mood of the country not sated itself and abated, but it's growing and gaining strength.

Two days ago I'd have bet the farm Bonilla wins the runoff by the same margin he lost by. Good thing I'm not a gambler, eh?

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